Bests & Worsts Reviews from Amazon

I wondered if this book might be a hackneyed view of China with a sensationalized scenario of improbable war. However, Author Graham Allison quickly back-peddles away from the provocative title: ===== The possibility that the United States and China could find themselves at war appears as unlikely as it would be unwise. ===== So much for THAT title! The title was written to sell books, of course, and not to represent the true content of the book. Allison primarily frames the USA vs. China rivalry in the well-known paradigm of superpower rivalries going back to Athens vs. Sparta, Britain vs. {every European Empire + Russia + Japan + USA}, and finally the USA vs. the Soviet Union. These stories are well-known. However, Allison tells them in interesting ways. For example, he explains that Germany’s desire to acquire much of the world dates from the late 1800s. Hitler did not originate the idea, but rather put it into action by attempting to wipe out the Soviet Union and repopulate it with Germans. That’s not relevant to China, but it is interesting history in its own right. He also tells the interesting story of how the USA’s rise rattled Great Britain and its Canadian Dominion. Fortunately, we “upstart Yankees” and the imperious Brits always compromised before armed conflict resulted --- the most severe incident being the Venezuela crisis of the 1890s when the USA accused Britain of violating the Monroe Doctrine by trying to re-colonize part of Venezuela’s territory. Fortunately, Britain took the long view that maintaining its investments in the USA, plus having us as allies against anticipated future aggression from Germany, was far more important than inciting us to war over Venezuela. Britain backed down, knowing that Venezuela was a prestige issue for the USA that we could not back down from. The implication is that we should not allow ourselves to be drawn into war with China over petty incidents that are vital to China’s prestige, but not to ours. Allison explains that China is fundamentally a peaceable country that regards war as the last resort of barbarians. The Chinese tradition is to prevail economically, by attaining dominance in trade. Nevertheless, we did fight the Chinese during the Korean War when they massively intervened to keep our armies away from the Chinese border. The Chinese did not fear our nuclear weapons, nor did they fear those of the Soviet Union when they provoked the Sino-Soviet Border War of 1969. Allison tells the interesting story of how Soviet Chairman Brezhnev asked our President Nixon to join him in a preemptive nuclear attack on China. Nixon declined of course, and then succeeded in establishing détente with China as well as the USSR. The USA and China have historically been in alliance against other expansionist powers, especially during WWII when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor after we demanded that the Japanese withdraw from their brutal conquest of China. Nevertheless, the possibility of war between the USA and China cannot be ignored. It happened in Korea and could happen again if relations are not carefully managed. After all, some of history's bloodiest wars, including WWI, the Chinese intervention in Korea, and our own Civil War were considered impossible until the day they ignited. Allison outlines the scenarios of possible USA / China war: a conflict in the high seas around China that China claims as sovereign territory; a conflict over the trade imbalance; a declaration of independence by Taiwan; and of course a renewal of the conflict in Korea that could accidentally involve both the USA and China in a war neither wants. The book explained to me why President Trump appears to be proceeding very cautiously (more cautiously than I would prefer) in asking the Chinese to restrain their trade imbalance with us, and in helping us defuse the nuclear ambitions of North Korea. I was educated to the subtleties of our relations with China that I had not been previously aware of. Like many Americans, I approached this book with both affection for China’s people, culture, and history. I have invested profitably in Chinese stocks, but have also seen how severe trade deficits with China severely hurts the USA and cost millions of Americans their jobs. The book confirms my belief that if we do not constrain our trade with China, we are destined to be destroyed as a major economic power. I travel abroad, and have seen how China copies American products, then pushes our American companies out of foreign markets and even our own domestic market. If the trend is not stopped, China will own the USA in 50 years or less. They will conquer us by combining the Chinese government and Chinese business into a unified, irresistible force that steals American technologies and repackages them as Chinese-made products sold around the world; while forbidding American companies to do business in China. Allison makes no bones about China’s intentions: ===== China is ready to use the carrots and sticks of its economic power— buying, selling, sanctioning, investing, bribing, and stealing as needed until they fall into line....China enjoys such superiority in its balance of economic power that many other states have no realistic option but to comply with its wishes, even when the international system is on their side....The fact is that China’s economic network is spreading across the globe, altering the international balance of power in a way that causes even longtime US allies in Asia to tilt from the US toward China ===== I thus learned more than I expected from the book. It is comprehensive in providing a broad perspective of all our current issues with China. Allison explains these issues objectively, and seems to have no hidden agendas to advocate for. I am rating this book four stars instead of five, only because the “Sparta vs. Athens” theme is long-winded and used to pad the book a bit more than necessary. I would also recommend another book as a companion to this one, that portrays the USA / China relationship in more historical depth, and with a more positive spin: THE BEAUTIFUL COUNTRY (the USA is called "the beautiful country" by Chinese) AND THE MIDDLE KINGDOM (China) BY John Pomfret. That book explains the past history of our relations with China. This book by Graham Allison has a more immediate impact of explaining our relations with China as a current and future event that may have an unhappy outcome if care is not taken on both sides. These two books together provide a thorough briefing on the opportunities, challenges, plus the threat of trade war or armed conflict with China. My takeaway from both is: “We can manage our relations to China constructively so as to have a fascinating and prosperous future of mutual benefit to us ad all humanity; but only so long as we are very careful not to disrespect each other, underestimate each other, or do something stupid that will provoke a war, that does not need to be fought.” Of course that idea is self-evident, but the books delve into the specific details of policy on HOW the vision of cordial relations and mutual prosperity between the USA and China can be achieved by both nations. Obviously, this will be one of the top two or three issues that shape our destiny, and the world’s, during the 21st Century.