Bests & Worsts Reviews from Amazon

I'm far from 100% sold on the ideas Zeihan presents, but the massive amount of knowledge he brings to the table automatically earns this book five stars. The challenge of this book for me is trying to judge Zeihan's views on a plethora of issues I know little about. But there was one issue I did feel I could judge somewhat. As a retired engineer I read things now and then about energy issues, and it is clear to me that there is a great deal of ignorance on the part of climate activists as to the capability of alternative energy technology which exists today to be deployed in a manner which allows fossil fuels to be phased out, without reverting the human race to a stone age existence. Zeihan passed the test in that regard, because it was clear he himself is keenly aware of those limitations. (examples being the intermittency of renewable electricity sources, the very limited extent of energy storage technology to mitigate that intermittency, the problems with electric-powered transportation (mining, recycling of batteries, etc), and the fact that fossil fuels are not just used as an energy source but are used heavily as ingredients for the production of a myriad of materials such as plastic, fertilizer, asphalt, concrete, etc. which are essential to modern civilization. So the one item I felt I could competently grade Zeihan on he gets an A. Taking a broader look at what's in this book I believe the key theme is the contention that 1). The globalized economy that exists today has ushered in a golden age of economic growth for the human race. 2). The conditions that enabled the globalized economy no longer exist. 3). Therefore, the world economy will de-globalize in the coming years. 4). De-globalization will have huge consequences for the nations of the world. 5). Most of these will be adverse. 6). Some countries will be much harder hit than others. Most of the book is devoted to providing an incredibly detailed description of what these consequences of de-globalization are likely to be. As logical and filled with detailed statistical information as these are, I am inclined to believe that there is a great deal of validity to those analyses. Probably the biggest point on which I am not convinced is that of how likely is the de-globalization to actually occur in the first place. It seems like a lot hinges on the premise that security for maritime trade is an expensive proposition and if the United States abandons its role of enforcing peace on the seas through its navy then maritime trade becomes largely uneconomic and shuts down. This ushers in all sorts of consequences for the world economy. These seem very believable to me, provided that the predicted shutdown of maritime trade does actually occur. Would it really cost that much for trading nations to spend some of their tax money for maritime security, to replace the role of the US navy? And to establish regional security agreements that allow them to cost-share those expenses between the stakeholder nations? One of the frustrating things about Zeihan's work is it seems like he is about the only game in town when it comes to geopolitics. I see video presentations of his work all over youtube. There has got to be someone out there with counterarguments. At the very least there must be some ignorant counterarguments out there, if not some valid ones. I mean, in something like politics you can find beliefs all over the map. Back to the topic at hand. Another thing I wonder about is the demographics. Zeihan seems to be very focused on the demographic transitions, i.e. relative demographics, and not on the absolute numbers of populations. I am still a believer that overpopulation is a genuine concern. And I have also been of the opinion that the demographic transitions going from a growing population to a stable one (which even Julian Simon acknowledged would have to happen at some point, although he believed the world could handle a population in the trillions), would lead to transition issues (e.g. too many retirees, too few workers), but that was just a fact of life. So anyway, on that issue, it would be interesting if Zeihan would discuss his views on the absolute numbers regarding population, what used to be expressed in terms of "carrying capacity" of the environment. However, I do acknowledge that it is reasonable for there to be much less concern about overpopulation today, considering the dramatic decrease in birthrates in recent decades. What I am not convinced of is that the consequences of the demographic transition will necessarily be as dire as Zeihan believes. For example I have long believed that a shrinking workforce may turn out to be a blessing for an economy in which automation is eliminating a large number of jobs. Another observation about Zeihan's predictions is that he focuses on what I would call the "medium term future". (a few decades) Longer term the fossil fuel economy will end, like it or not, as fossil fuels run out. But it's reasonable not to get much into the longer-term future, because I'm not sure there's much that can be said. About all I can say about it is I wish there were more basic research going on in alternative energy and materials sources to replace fossil fuels. One idea which isn't particularly relevant to the book but which I have seen Zeihan discuss: The Ukraine issue. If I am interpreting his position correctly, Zeihan believes Russia has the desire to occupy portions of a number of European countries to so that it will have a more militarily defensible border. The other school of thought (Mearschiemer (sp?)) is that Russia has specific historical and security issues regarding Ukraine, and thus Putin's territorial agenda solely involves Ukraine, and probably just portions of it. Mearscheimer asserts that it's possible that Russia may have the larger agenda, but that there is no actual evidence for that belief. So it would be helpful to know what specific evidence there is for the belief that Putin has the more expansive territorial goals. Back to the book: Overall, Zeihan's book is staggeringly impressive in the wealth of facts he assembles into his picture of the world in coming decades. I hope he inspires more people to pursue the study of geopolitics so that we can get some other perspectives. Until then, Zeihan is da man.