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★☆☆☆☆
In the land of blind, the one-eyed is king
This book will delight anyone who enjoys reading Greenspan. The first 100 pages are simplistic banal ECO001 clichés disguised by the magic of the written word as "powerful deep thinking" and highly recommended as a much safer alternative to sleeping pills for the insomniac bibliophile.
Even better, the sleeping pill has been especially designed for disciples of Greenspan, Paulson or Bush: all the financial delusion/fantasm they share are present and this will comfort the typical Wall Street reader in these troubled time (the book was released sep 4, 2008) and lead them in an (at last) comforting sleep.
Especially, when the eminent author compares China, which banks
"do not understand credit risk management, not to mention even the rudimentary rules of financial transparency"
with ...
"large American and European financial institutions" that "look like paragons of financial purity". (p. 108)
No kidding!
You can hardly be more delusional than that!
The author is remarkably candid about his ability to evaluate the global economy. When he learned on aug 10, 2007, that inter-bank loan market had seized and the stock market had dropped 3%, the author, who "confers with central bankers (such as Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke) and advised top Wall Street executives and investors", reasoned:
"None of this makes sense, I though. The markets had become hysterical over losses in the so-called subprime market...why a near-global market meldown and a collapse of lending simply because of some mortgage foreclosures? After all, the problem loans amounted to, at worst, $200 billiom in exposure in a global market worth hundreds of trillions"
Sorry, but any reasonably alert investor who would have read Buffett 2002 letter to investors, or listened to Nouriel Roubini (IMF 2006) would have known exactly what was going on ... months in advance!
That smart investor only had to put his money in his mattress and he would have made more money during the ensuing 1.5 year than the sum of the 4 largest investement bank and 5 biggest bank in the world COMBINED, institutions, let us remind, repleted with "genius traders", managed by CEO worth $10 millions/yr, and last, but not least, enlightened by highly paid consultant such as Mr Smick.
The author was a consultant to Greespan and Bernanke and hadn't a clue on the importance of the bursting of the housing bubble and its amplification by the derivative structure even in the month leading to it. Unbelievably frightening reality.
Before completing the book, I had read enough. It was clear that this book's return on investment (time and money wise) was already too negative to continue.
I will retun it for a full refund. I feel it would be immoral and unconscionable to financially support such writing.
ADDENDUM
One could wonder why such as book got such lavish endorsement by Greenspan, Trichet, Summers, etc.
Very simple.
The author by initiating international banking conferences acted as a middle man between a significant number of high-level financial personalities. True to form, the book contains a few sycophantic pages on each of them to the point that one could be easily led to believe that the true purpose of the book is a public relation exercice to rescue the reputation of the financial actors involved. Highly grateful, they, not surprisinly, are enthusiastically "endorsing" the book.
And surely, those people are indeed in desperate need of hagiographers:
Remember Greenspan's deep insight of the financial market? :
"The use of a growing array of derivatives and the related application of more-sophisticated approaches to measuring and managing risk are key factors underpinning the greater resilience of our largest financial institutions" (Greenspan, May 2005)
Remember Trichet management at Credit Lyonnais?:
Trichet was prosecuted because as "directeur du trésor" with the complicity of others he had knowingly signed on a falsifed 1992 annual report of the nationalised Credit Lyonais which dramatically reduce its loss and therefore adroitely prevent it from becoming insolvent. He was later rewarded for his brilliant service by being named head of the French Central Bank and the entire world was waiting for him to take the helm of the European Central Bank when, very inconveniently, a stubborn prosecutor continued to press the case forward which threatened to prevent France from having its man at the helm of the ECB. In the end some others were given slap-on-the-wrist sentences and he was himself completely absolved (in 2003) by the judge (the defense being more or less that he had notified/warned the board of director), conveniently just in time to take on his new job.
October 2008 · Books