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Simple vs. simplistic
Different traders have different styles. Some want a zillion confirming indicators before placing a trade, some prefer playing with indicators to trading, and some indulge in the fantasy of finding the "holy grail" system.
Personally, I've never found anything that beats good ole support and resistance, trendlines, and entering the "zone" by watching candlesticks form and candlestick formations. I pay my bills with Forex, and I trade against the indicators only slightly less often than I trade with them. I often forget to look at them at all because I'm focused on what is happening with the ... PRICE!
The problem with indicators is they tell you what has happened but they make you believe they can tell you what WILL happen. There is a world of difference between looking at a historical chart and watching one develop in real time. If you don't believe me, just place a default slow stochastic on a chart and watch the crosses develop. You'll lose a heap of money in no time at all. Then knock yourself out tweaking it according to any number of holy grail systems. You'll lose another heap of money.
Raghee's system is no different. It looks great on historical charts, but often fails to predict the future in real time.
Actually, it is fairly easy to predict where prices will go in general - assuming no strong support or resistance and no big news, they will usually continue merrily on in the direction they are going. Consequently, it's easy to get into a trade.
Getting out is the trick. And that trick is about experience, psychology, and money management more than prediction.
IMO, the truely reliable tools for trading Forex are simple -- S&R, trend, candle formation, PRICE PRICE PRICE. The systems based on indicators -- Raghee's included -- are simplistic, which is quite different from simple.
Kids, there ain't no free lunch. That's the bottom line.
January 2006 · Books