Bests & Worsts Reviews from Amazon

One might make a prediction or two about the fate of the world in the comfort of one's home, among one's close friends and family after a couple of stiff drinks and no one could care less about them in a day or two. Gordon Chang made the mistake of writing a book about his predictions of China so that for as long as he shall live, people could hold his predictions against him. This reader wouldn't really care about someon who thinks he knows a thing or two about China simply because he's of Chinese descent but for the fact that 10 years after the book was written, the collapse (which was supposed to take place within ten years from when the book was written) as predicted by the author still has not happened and the forecaster is nevertheless being interviewed by Western media as some China "expert". China no doubt has many problems, some hidden from outsiders' view but some of the key predictions made in the book - China's economy was to be destroyed by its inefficient state owned enterprises, the Communist party was soon going to be overthrown by the people whom it rules with an iron fist, joining the WTO was going to completely expose China's lack of competitiveness and destroy its economy, and the internet was going to usher in an era of unprecedented free discourse which would eventually lead to democracy - have turned out to be completely wrong (and some to the detriment of China's people and the rest of the world). In fact, one would have trouble being more wrong making predictions about anything, including the weather and the timing of the end of the world. Why was Chang so off? This reader's guess is that although he spent (and still spends) considerable amounts of time in China, he isolated himself in the elitist/intellectual/expat circle and really had little understanding of things happening outside of that small circle. For example, as much as Chang and other westerners may wish and believe, China's Communist Party enjoys popular support among the vast majority of peasants and the very poor. Call it ignorance and the result of brain-washing if you wish. It is also popular among the wealthy and the powerful who owe their recently found wealth and power to the policies and direct handouts by the Party. So the people who are truly unhappy under the rule by the communists are the still relative small middle class and the intellectuals (Chang's small circle of friends). So while the corrupt current regime may not be there forever, they are going to prove many western forecasters wrong for many years to come. Also, Chang thought the lack of a credible belief system was going to lead the people to turn toward religions and cults en mass. He thought the Chinese could not become more materialistic than they already were. But 10 years later, the Chinese are at once more religious and more materialistic. There are thriving underground church communities, who are, contrary to Chang's prediction, not preaching violence or hostility against their government who in turn (again contrary to Chang's prediction) has for the most part tolerated their growth. At the same time, many Chinese, if not most, have made "a pact with the devil" agreeing to give up a substantial part of their personal liberty in exchange for greater material wealth. This reviewer is not suggesting that this scenario is a) preferred or b) will last forever but any forecasts of the communists' imminent demise are simply laughable. And of course, nothing is a bigger slap on Chang's face than the miraculous growth of the Chinese economy over the past decade in direct contradiction to his forecast of a total collapse. This reviewer can't help but wonder what state of economic health Chang's in? If he is doing well then he must have either joined the corrupt elite or benefited from the government's liberal economic policies. For he could not have benefited from being a so-called China expert. This reader enjoyed reading his book, mainly from counting the mistakes Chang makes on every page. China's economy or its government may one day collapse yet but their timing is surely out of the grasp of some intellectual light weight like Chang. Here is one last question: who is the bigger fool, Chang or the media outlets that hire him?