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A diatribe from a Billionaire
I first read this book in 1994 and remembered it being unuseful and his kitchen-talk economics being superficial. So, 11 yrs later I picked it up again believing that it was my own lack of understanding and maturity that made me under-appreciate Soros. But, I was wrong.
Pros: Chapter Chapter 3 is about his approach to the currency market speculation. This is probably the most useful part of the book for an investor or market observer. Currencies are, after all, entirely relative to each other, particularly after the fall of Bretton Woods. He simplifies his model into eight variables (nominal FX, nominal i, price levels, gdp, capital flows, hotmoney flows, trade account, and govt budget) and then talks about how a virtual cycle appears when the market perception itself feeds price movement, which in turn fuels the perception that the perception was correct. This culminates in incorrect pricing and thus opportunity. This approach is not unlike other int'l/macro hedge fund managers today.
Cons: He has lengthy diatribes around his overabundant belief that he's a great-mind in philosophy and economics. Reflexivity is nothing more than the notion that market participants affect a price, but that prices are dynamic and constantly influenced by perception -- and here's the GREAT insight -- and perception sometimes is misled by unfounded herd momentum. He applies this model to the stocks, currencies, and credit vs regulatory cycles in the book. However, Billionaire make not a Worldly Sage...
For example, he debunks all academically-taught economics by comparing the "Perfect Competition" model to his Reflexivity. Well, of course, Perfect Competition is not reality and Supply/Demand are not discrete lines that nicely intersect on Wall Street at 4:00pm every business day! Every student of economics understands that. Its too bad that Soros's 1950's college-level economics didn't introduce him to more challenging concepts and higher level models (no offense intended towards Princeton). He does similar things to metaphysics, which can be best described as a little better than yet-another-Hollywood-actor describing existentialism.
His arguments follow an annoying pattern: (1) oversimplify a current model and debunk it, (2) apply his Reflexivity theory onto the situation, and (3) philosophize about life's implications. I can almost see him take a cigar puff then as minions sit gasping at his profound teachings, as if from Kant and Samuelson -- combined. He readily admits in the introduction and thoroughout the book that he's writing real-time and out of sequence when he has time. So, the style of writing follow an initially focused set of themes, then meander about as if he's punching the keyboard at 2:00am.
In summary, this book will NOT give you insights into the mind of one of the most profitable hedge fund traders in the world. He will not tell you his techniques (like "How to Trade like a Hedge Fund"), nor will he allow you into his inner feelings and personality (like "My Life as a Quant") so that you can walk away with something useful tomorrow. Rather, he's telling you what he wants and drags you along for a ride with verbose pages -- after pages.
December 2005 · Books