Bests & Worsts Reviews from Amazon

Bought a Gen2 Kindle for my wife (she loves it) WITH an extended warranty ("EW"), on which I based my rating, but to be completely accurate, its true rating won't be known unless and until I ever have to make a claim. I have on order a Gen3 for my daughter and am debating (with myself) whether to order an EW for her Kindle. My general feeling about insurance (I know, I know, an EW isn't insurance, but I think the decision making factors are the same for both) is that one ought to insure only those risks one can't afford to assume. In other words, if you happen to be Bill Gates you don't have to insure your $20+ million house because if it burns down you can afford to replace it. Insurance is always a bad deal because (1) the premium is based on risk of loss, which the insurance company knows very precisely; (2) the premium includes its cost of doing business; and (3) the premium includes its profit. Therefore, the premium cost is greater than the risk of loss and you should not buy insurance if you can afford to shell out the cost of buying a new Gen3 should it break or be damaged. So, for $50 you/I get "protection" (I'll use that word to avoid the "not insurance" argument) only for the second year, since the first year is covered by the warranty, plus Accidental Damage for two years. And keep in mind that the EW doesn't seem to include loss or theft, and only includes one battery replacement. For that you/I would be paying MORE THAN 25% OF THE COST OF THE GEN3 KINDLE!!!! Are one out of every 3 or 4 Gen3 Kindles going to break in the second year or be damaged in the first two years? That seems extremely unlikely to me and, since I can afford another $180 if I lose my "bet," I have made up my mind, as I write this, not to buy the EW and I will insure it myself. (I can call it insurance if I want to because I am the one insuring it. I can call it anything I want to, including "covering my own bet." I have had the EW item in and out of my cart for a while due to my indecision, but I am now going to remove it permanently. Even if I have to buy a new one within the next two years, I think I will have won the "probability game," and I would not be surprised if a Gen4, at a lower price, will be available by the latter part of the two year period if I do have to buy a new one. Thanks for helping me make up my mind. BTW, in case you're wondering why I don't have an eReader, it's because I listen to audiobooks when I commute. I found it difficult to read and drive at the same time.